So, Jay Powell’s Fed went further and raised its target rate by 75 basis points to 2.5%, just as the world expected. No big surprise.
The stock market climbed over 500 points. The bonds are basically flat at 10-year 2.79 and gold is up $18.
I think if he had a little more hair on his chest, he would have made 100. My theory is just that as fast Fed gets target rate above inflation and removes excess cash from the economy and regains price stability, as fast as the economy can begin to grow again.
Remember, the Fed’s recent tough measures have yet to significantly impact the economy. It is still ahead of us. The economic slowdown in the first half of the year is primarily a function of skyrocketing inflation, which has eroded real wages and real retail sales and completely damaged consumer and small business confidence.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey is falling like a stone. The July reading was 95.7%, up from 125.1% a year earlier. That’s a drop of 23%, and the consumer inflation expectation for next year is 7.6%, which sounds pretty accurate to me.
Market signals are suggesting inflation peaks, but it’s going to be sticky on the way down and it’s going to take a year or more – maybe two years if the Fed is ever going to go back to its 2% target. . So, it’s not going to be easy and if you want any semblance of growth in the economy, you have to extend the Trump tax cuts and end Biden’s modern socialism, regulatory crisis.
Like his jihad against fossil fuels and his opposition to the rest of business and profit for that matter, and his insistence that income redistribution and radical climate activism are central to his radically progressive economic policy. Those policies have to go away. They are a hindrance to economic development. Low taxes and tight money is the perfect recipe. The Bidens didn’t get it.
Now, there’s a breaking news story about the Fed. Chinese espionage and espionage have infiltrated our country’s central bank, Jay Powell denies this, but the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and the FBI and Britain’s MI5 are hot on the trail, issuing a rare joint warning to all businesses in Chinese espionage and cyber-hacking and Fed research throughout the Federal Reserve. The subsidiary system has had illegal contacts with the Chinese ruling Communist Party.
Now they are being busted. China has tried to get hold of the Federal Reserve’s economic models and key data points, and China has launched talent recruitment programs as well as information sharing efforts.
It goes all the way back to a Fed investigation in 2015, where they identified 13 people dubbing the “P” network in 8 of the 13 regional Fed banks. Then, a former Fed employee, identified as “Z”, attempted to recruit network members.
This stuff is out of a John LaCare novel. Think “tinker, tailor, soldier, spy.” Rob Portman is the senator at the head of the investigation. He may replace Gary Oldman as George Smiley in the new film. Why Jay Powell is denying all this is beyond me, but if he continues, we are not going to give him a part in the film.
Adding to the conspiracy, a Fed economist who traveled to Shanghai a few years ago found Chinese thugs breaking into his hotel room, telling them they had to share sensitive information and Advise the Chinese Communist Government, He also kept an eye on his telephone calls surrounding the pre-divorce. Those guys play hard! very cruel.
To be honest, I don’t know why the Chinese want the Fed’s forecasts, because they are never good. Maybe Jay Powell is handling double agents for spreading misinformation, but, in any case, it’s a lousy story. It is about national security and it is about Chinese communist evil.
It’s one of many reasons why Joe Biden should refuse tariffs to China, or any concessions on selling strategic petroleum oil reserves, or anything else, but President Biden won’t be in the new movie.
This article is adapted from Larry Kudlow’s opening remarks on the July 27, 2022 edition of “Kudlow.”