Stanley Cup Championship Odds: Who Helped Or Hurt His Chances This Off-Season?

a lot has happened since Avalanche On June 26, the Stanley Cup was hoisted. It has signed 352 contracts NHLAnd 25 trades – excluding draft-day pick swaps – many of them are reshaping the landscape for the 2022-23 season.

Hart Trophy Candidate johnny goudreau Shocked the hockey world by signing columbuswho started a chain reaction that landed Matthew Tkachuk in Florida and Jonathan Huberdew – At Calgary – which ended just behind Goudreau for Hart. Goalkeeper changed seats like a game of musical chairs, and nearly a third of the league has a new coach this season. There are still some changes to come (cough, cough… Nazem Qadri and John Klingberg) but the dust has settled on most of the NHL off-season that was wild at most.

Now that we have a better picture of what each team will look like next season, it’s time to ask: Which teams improved or hurt their championship aspirations this summer? To determine this, we compared the Stanley Cup odds for each team since June 26, courtesy of Bet MGM. It’s clearly not an accurate representation of which teams have done better or worse, but it is a glimpse into how the odd-makers and betting public view each club’s off-season maneuvers.

Since not every dollar on the money line is equal, we will use “implied odds” for each team, which converts their odds into percentages. For example, the Colorado Avalanche has the best chance of winning the 2022–23 Cup at +425, which is a 19.5 percent chance. meanwhile, blackhawks The worst odds are at +50,000, which translates to a 0.2 percent chance.

Using this method results in large line movement by teams with longshot odds. With a team like Columbus going from +10,000 to +8,000, there is a 1,000-point shift in the odds, but in reality, it only improves their implicit cup winning percentage from 0.99 to 1.23 percent. Meanwhile, Colorado rose from +450 to +425. That’s only a 25-point change at the odds, but the Avalanche’s implied percentage of winning the Cup went from 18.18 to 19.05 percent—a much higher increase than Columbus’s.

In the last month, there were nine teams that improved their odds, 11 that saw their odds and 12 that saw their odds stay the same. The full chart is at the bottom. First, we’ll examine the top five at each end of the spectrum, starting with those whose odds have improved the most.

1. Florida Panthers

26 June Odds: +1,000 (9.09%)
Current difference: +900 (10.00%)
Percentage Change: 0.91%

High-profile moves probably affect the betting market more than they do, and this could be a perfect example. The Panthers entered the offseason with the fourth-best odds of winning the next year’s Cup, and the odds have done more to improve their chances than any other team in the NHL.

It’s a little odd to see Florida top the list as it lost its leading scorer at Huberdeau and several key pieces ahead Claude Giroux And Mason Marchmentand defense personnel Mackenzie Vega And ben chiarotto this summer. The Panthers apparently added another star to Takachuk, as well as some depth further afield. Nick Cousins And Colin WhiteBut to say that he has had the best off season is a stretch.

Nothing fuels the future bets more than a blockbuster takeover over the summer, and Takachuk certainly is.

2. Colorado Avalanche

26 June Odds: +450 (18.18%)
Current difference: +425 (19.05%)
Percentage Change: 0.87%

Colorado’s improvement in the odds this summer was not due to a real improvement in the roster. Weak, loser in Colorado Nets darcy kumper To Washington and quickly replace it Alexander Georgiev, it also lost further Nicolas Aube-Kubelli And Andre Burakovsky Agency for free, and still Qadri could be lost.

There’s a chance bookmakers are taking their game on Colorado’s young stars to another level, but this change in odds is more likely due to a lack of improvement from teams surrounding the avalanche. The top three teams entering the off-season improved their odds, albeit with minor upgrades. This suggests that none of the teams below them improved enough to catch them, leading the market into favourites.

3. Ottawa Senator

26 June Odds: +8,000 (1.23%)
Current difference: +5,000 (1.96%)
Percentage Change: 0.73%

What a summer it has been for the Senators. General Manager Pierre Dorian added two impact players alex debrincat and Giroux, and potentially improved their targeting with a cheaper starting option. Trade for DeBrincat alone would have made it a triumphant offseason for the Senators, with the 24-year-old being included in an impressive 41-goal season for only a handful of draft picks. Signing the hometown legend to Giroux could be an excellent free agency move and swap Matt Murray For cam talbot Ottawa’s goal in the nets should improve. Talbot has outperformed Murray in each of the past three years with above average save percentages and goals, but will only hit the $3.6 million cap.

Those moves resulted in a 0.73 percent swing in the odds for Ottawa, improving to 80-to-1 and winning it all 50-to-1. The Senators are still clearly a long shot, but now have a fifth-best chance of winning the Atlantic Division despite only finishing above Montreal In 2021-22.

4. Toronto Maple Leafs

26 June Odds: +850 (10.53%)
Current difference: +800 (11.11%)
Percentage Change: 0.58%

Toronto has had a busy season, losing several contributors from the lineup last year, while adding two new goals and some new depth pieces via free agency. Perhaps this change in odds is due to the belief that Matt Murray will return to his 2016 form, or perhaps the Leafs’ under-the-radar moves to bookmakers such as signing Aube-Kubel and jarnrock street, Either way, Toronto is one of the favorites to enter next season.

5. New York Rangers

26 June Odds: +2,000 (4.76%)
Current difference: +1,800 (5.26%)
Percentage Change: 0.50%

Rangers lost ahead Ryan Strom And Andrew Kopp through free agency, but converted them to trading Vincent Trochek from Carolina. He will be reunited with Gerard Gallant, who coached him in several of the best offensive seasons of his career in Florida.

The Rangers’ support of the betting public likely has more to do with their developing young talent rather than actual off-season acquisitions. watching Adam Fox, Philip Chitil, alexis lafrenire, K’Andre Miller, capo cacos And Ryan Lindgren (all under the age of 24) play the same way they did post season, foreshadowing a bright future in New York.


Vincent Trochek. (Danny Wilde / USA Today)

Now for the five teams that have suffered the most in their 2022-23 Cup this summer:

1. Calgary Flames

26 June Odds: +1,800 (5.26%)
Current difference: +2,200 (4.35%)
Percentage Change: -0.91%

General Manager Brad Trelliving did an incredible job securing the return he made for Takachuk, given the circumstances, but it cannot be denied that the Flames are in worse shape after losing two of their leading scorers a year earlier. Huh.

Tkachuk and Goudreau scored 82 goals in 2021-22, which was more than 28 percent of the team’s total. Even after the acquisition of Huberdew and Vigor, it is easy to see why the betting market on Flames is bearish.

2. tampa bay lightning

26 June Odds: +900 (10.00%)
Current difference: +1,000 (9.09%)
Percentage Change: -0.91%

The Lightning are projected to still contend for another Cup, but their pay-cap issues are slowly creeping away from their stacked roster. GM Julian Bricebois did well to lock up Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli And Eric Cernaki for long-term deals, but to do so he lost two cornerstones in the dressing room. with Ryan McDonagh And flip ondrej The two are on their way out the door, near Tampa Bay to answer questions.

Even with a drop of 0.91 percent, Lightning still has the fourth-best margin to win it all in 2022-23.

3. Philadelphia Flyers

26 June Odds: +6,600 (1.49%)
Current difference: +15,000 (0.66%)
Percentage Change: -0.91%

Entering the offseason, the Flyers were close to the middle of the pack in terms of odds to win the 2022–23 Cup (ranked 23rd in the league at 66-to-1). after trading Tony DiAngeloWith him signing a $10 million contract and missing hometown hero (Goudreau), the Flyers’ odds have dropped to the sixth-worst in the NHL.

4. Chicago Blackhawks

26 June Odds: +10,000 (0.99%)
Current difference: +50,000 (0.20%)
Percentage Change: -0.79%

The Blackhawks entered the off-season as 100-to-1 longshots and still managed to be demonstrably worse. The list of Chicago losers continues to grow. de Brinkt and kirby roof The big two are there, but the Blackhawks also said goodbye to the depths ahead Dylan Strom And Dominic Cubaand rescuers Calvin de Haan.

A month earlier, the Blackhaus had its fourth worst. now they are tied up with coyote For the worst odds in the NHL at 500-to-1.

5. St. Louis Blues

26 June Odds: +2,200 (4.35%)
Current difference: +2,500 (3.85%)
Percentage Change: -0.50%

It has been a calm season in St. Louis. The Blues saw one of their top scorers (David Peron) and his No. 1 goaltender for most of last season (ville huso) out the door, but it didn’t add much to replace them. It’s easy to see why the blues’ odds have slipped over the past month, especially now that they’re out of the Takachuk Sweepstakes.

Here’s how the odds changed for each team in the league last month:

crew

6/26

current

Change

9.09%

10.00%

0.91%

18.18%

19.05%

0.87%

1.23%

1.96%

0.73%

10.53%

11.11%

0.58%

NY Rangers

4.76%

5.26%

0.50%

1.96%

2.44%

0.48%

2.44%

2.78%

0.34%

1.23%

1.49%

0.26%

0.99%

1.23%

0.24%

7.69%

7.69%

0%

6.67%

6.67%

0%

5.88%

5.88%

0%

5.26%

5.26%

0%

4.76%

4.76%

0%

NY Islanders

3.23%

3.23%

0%

2.78%

2.78%

0%

2.44%

2.44%

0%

1.96%

1.96%

0%

1.96%

1.96%

0%

0.66%

0.66%

0%

0.20%

0.20%

0%

0.79%

0.66%

-0.13%

1.23%

0.99%

-0.24%

1.49%

1.23%

-0.26%

1.49%

1.23%

-0.26%

0.99%

0.66%

-0.33%

3.85%

3.45%

-0.40%

4.35%

3.85%

-0.50%

0.99%

0.20%

-0.79%

1.49%

0.66%

-0.83%

10.00%

9.09%

-0.91%

5.26%

4.35%

-0.91%

(Top photo of Austin Matthews, morgan reilly And Mitch Marner: Dan Hamilton / USA Today)

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